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Trump's trade blitz produces few deals but lots of uncertainty

WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 President Donald Trump and his advisers promised a lightning round of global trade negotiations with dozens of countries back in April. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro predicted 鈥90 deals in 90 days.
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Cranes and shipping containers are seen at a port in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, Tuesday, July 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 President Donald Trump and his advisers promised a lightning round of global trade negotiations with dozens of countries back in April.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro predicted 鈥90 deals in 90 days.鈥欌 Administration officials declared that other countries were desperate to make concessions to avoid the massive import taxes 鈥 tariffs -- that Trump was threatening to plaster on their products starting July 9.

But the 90 days have come and gone. And the tally of trade deals stands at two 鈥 one with the United Kingdom and one with Vietnam. Trump has also announced the details of which remain fuzzy.

Trump has now and tinkered with his threatened tariffs, leaving the global trading system pretty much where it stood three months ago 鈥 in a state of limbo as businesses delay decisions on investments, contracts and hiring because they don鈥檛 know what the rules will be.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a rerun, basically,鈥欌 said William Reinsch, a former U.S. trade official who鈥檚 now an adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. Trump and his team 鈥渄on鈥檛 have the deals they want. So they鈥檙e piling on the threats."

The pattern has repeated itself enough times to earn Trump the label 鈥 an acronym coined by The Financial Times鈥 Robert Armstrong that stands for 鈥淭rump Always Chickens Out.鈥

"This is classic Trump: Threaten, threaten more, but then extend the deadline,鈥 Reinsch said. 鈥淛uly 30 arrives, does he do it again if he still doesn鈥檛 have the deals?鈥欌 (Trump said Tuesday that there will be no more extensions.)

The deal drought represents a collision with reality.

Negotiating simultaneously with every country on earth was always an impossible task, as Trump himself belatedly admitted last month in an interview with the Fox News Channel. (鈥淭here鈥檚 200 countries,鈥欌 the president said. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 talk to all of them.鈥欌) And many trading partners 鈥 such as Japan and the European Union 鈥 were always likely to balk at Trump鈥檚 demands, at least without getting something in return.

鈥淚t鈥檚 really, really hard to negotiate trade agreements,鈥 which usually takes several months even when it involves just one country or a small regional group, said Chad Bown, an economic adviser in the Obama White House and now senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 鈥淲hat the administration is doing is negotiating a bunch of these at the same time.鈥欌

The drama began April 2 鈥 "Liberation Day,'' Trump called it 鈥 when the tariff-loving president announced a so-called baseline on countries with which the United States runs trade deficits.

The 10% baseline tariffs appear to be here to stay. Trump needs them to raise money to his massive tax-cut bill is blasting into the federal budget deficit.

By themselves, the baseline tariffs represent a massive shift in American trade policy: Tariffs averaged around 2.5% when Trump returned to the White House and were even lower before he started raising them in his first term.

But the reciprocal tariffs are an even bigger deal.

In announcing them, Trump effectively . For decades, the United States and most other countries abided by tariff rates set through a series of complex negotiations known as the Uruguay round. Countries could set their own tariffs 鈥 but under the 鈥渕ost favored nation鈥欌 approach, they couldn鈥檛 charge one country more than they charged another.

Now Trump is setting the tariff rates himself, creating 鈥渢ailor-made trade plans for each and every country on this planet,鈥欌 in the words of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

But investors have recoiled at the audacious plan, fearing that it will disrupt trade and damage the world economy. Trump鈥檚 Liberation Day tariffs, for instance, set off a four-day rout in global financial markets. . Less than 13 hours after the reciprocal tariffs took effect April 9, he abruptly suspended them for 90 days, giving countries time to negotiate with his trade team.

Despite the Trump administration鈥檚 expressions of confidence, the talks turned into a slog.

鈥淐ountries have their own politics, their own domestic politics,鈥 Reinsch said. 鈥淭rump structured this ideally so that all the concessions are made by the other guys and the only U.S. concession is: We don鈥檛 impose the tariffs.鈥欌

But countries like South Korea and Japan needed 鈥渢o come back with something,鈥欌 he said. Their thinking: 鈥淲e have to get some concessions out of the United States to make it look like this is a win-win agreement and not a we-fold-and-surrender agreement. 鈥

Japan, for example, wanted relief from another Trump tariff 鈥 .

Countries may also be hesitant to reach a deal with the United States while the Trump administration conducts investigations that might result in new tariffs on a range of products, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

Frustrated by the lack of progress, Trump on Monday sent letters to Japan, South Korea and 12 other countries, saying he鈥檇 hit them with tariffs Aug. 1 if they couldn鈥檛 reach an agreement. The levies were close to what he鈥檇 announced on April 2; Japan鈥檚, for example, would be 25%, compared to the 24% unveiled April 2.

Trump did sign an that, among other provisions, reduced U.S. tariffs on British automotive and aerospace products while opening the U.K. market for American beef and ethanol. But the pact kept the baseline tariff on British products mostly in place, underlining Trump鈥檚 commitment to the 10% tax despite the United States running a trade surplus 鈥 not a deficit 鈥 with the U.K. for 19 straight years, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

On July 2. Trump announced a . The Vietnamese agreed to let U.S. products into the country duty free while accepting a 20% tax on their exports to the United States, Trump said, though details of the agreement have not been released.

The lopsided deal with Vietnam suggests that Trump can successfully use the tariff threat to bully concessions out of smaller economies.

鈥淭hey just can鈥檛 really negotiate in the same way that the (European Union) or Korea or Japan (or) Canada can negotiate with the United States,鈥欌 said Dan McCarthy, principal in McCarthy Consulting and a former official with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative in the Biden administration. 鈥淎 lot of (smaller) countries just want to get out of this and are willing to cut their losses.鈥欌

But wrangling a deal with bigger trading partners is likely to remain tougher.

鈥淭he U.S. is gambling that these countries will ultimately be intimidated and fold,鈥 Reinsch said. 鈥淎nd the countries are gambling that the longer this stretches out, and the longer it goes without Trump producing any more deals, the more desperate he gets; and he lowers his standards.

"It鈥檚 kind of a giant game of chicken.鈥欌

Paul Wiseman, The Associated Press